UK House Prices Could Surge by £86,000 by 2029, Says Savills Forecast

Stamp duty has long been blamed for “trapping” older homeowners — and a new report by Savills makes the cost of doing nothing clear. If even a fraction of these owners downsized, over half a million homes could return to the market in just 12 months. Could 2025 be the year the government finally acts?

In July 2025, Savills published analysis that could reframe the UK's housing debate. According to the report, offering stamp duty exemptions or discounts to downsizers could prompt a wave of older homeowners to move — potentially unlocking 500,000 properties in just one year. The current tax burden discourages many from moving, especially those on fixed incomes or living in homes larger than they need. Savills argues that with tailored incentives, these owners could free up significant housing stock for younger buyers, first-time homeowners, and growing families. The report has already caught the attention of policymakers, especially in the wake of ongoing affordability challenges across the country.

More than 3.6 million people aged over 65 live in homes with two or more spare bedrooms, according to Savills. While many wish to move to smaller, more manageable properties, the upfront cost of stamp duty remains a serious deterrent. The average downsizer pays £10,000 or more in stamp duty, depending on location — even if they’re buying a smaller home. For many, it simply isn’t worth it. With demand for family-sized homes far outpacing supply, unlocking this group could deliver immediate impact — and help balance the market at both ends.