Prime London Prices Slide Amid Wealthy Exodus

Prime Central London is gripped by its most anxious market in years. Falling prices, tax changes and a wave of wealthy residents leaving are reshaping demand — but also creating selective opportunities.

Prime Central London (PCL) is facing the most nervous market conditions seen in over a decade, according to London property broker Black Brick. The anxiety stems largely from the end of the non‑dom tax regime in April, which has triggered a significant departure of wealthy elites. New data from the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2025 shows the UK is on track to lose around 16,500 millionaires this year — the biggest annual net outflow ever recorded. In response, Knight Frank has cut its PCL price growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 0%, warning of a £401 million Stamp Duty shortfall driven by a 14% drop in £5m+ sales year‑on‑year. Camilla Dell, Managing Partner at Black Brick, explains: “Buyers know it’s a buyers’ market, but many are worried about catching a falling knife. The departure of high‑net‑worth residents has created real nerves at the top end.”

Transaction levels in PCL are now 36% lower than May 2024, with fewer homes going under offer as owner‑occupiers choose to wait and rent instead of buy. Yet not everyone is stepping back. Black Brick reports some investors are quietly returning, drawn by gross rental yields of around 5% — higher than many savings bonds, and with the potential for long‑term capital growth. Tom Kain, Partner at Black Brick, notes: “Ironically, the anxiety among owner‑occupiers is creating value opportunities for yield‑focused investors.” Despite wider price declines, select neighbourhoods like South Kensington and parts of the West End (Fitzrovia, Bloomsbury and Soho) are bucking the trend, with local price increases seen over the past year.